Once more the Israelis say a coming war with Lebanon is inevitable. And once more the general secretary of Hezbollah would appear on a big screen pointing his finger in gestures of warnings and threats, talking about the readiness of his men to face any possible Israeli attack. I do not doubt Hezbollah is ready, but not the Lebanese state.
Hezbollah lures israel into wars that end up with a totally destroyed country and self proclaimed victories. While such a war would be very painful and expensive for both the Israelis and Hezbollah, the main victim will be the lebanese infrastructure and the lebanese state which will be weakened more than anyone else. The arms possibly obtained by Hezbollah from Syria will make the war harder for the Israelis, more destructive for Lebanon, more deadly for the Lebanese especially in the south and the southern suburb of Beirut, but more glorious for Hezbollah.
Israel will not in anyway seek the total abolishment of the Hezb. The Jewish state needs controllably dangerous and obedient enemies on its borders, the war will only be a taming war. This has always been the strategy of Tel Aviv. What Israel and Hezbollah have in common despite their enmity is their interest in a divided sectarian ruled Middle East. The possible israeli war will serve such a project as Hezbollah will surely claim victory by the end of war regardless of its catastrophic results, will emphasize the politico-sectarian identity of the claimed triumph and will never dedicate it to serve real partnership. In Contrary, Hezbollah will try to make maximum political advantages of this claimed victory repeating the scenario of 2006-2008.
With the Syrian regime shaken by a civil war, Lebanon remains the last ground for the Iranian camp welcomes all the possibilities to weaken the state, underline sectarian identity of the coming claimed victory and take control. Hezbollah will be okay with the war… It is the Lebanese state that should find its way out.